Numerical weather prediction

Improving day-ahead probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting via shape-prior flow matching for numerical weather prediction downscaling

Accurate day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential for photovoltaic integration, reserve scheduling, and energy storage operation. However, operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products are commonly available at hourly resolution, …

The role of spatio-temporal satellite-derived products and numerical weather forecasts in data-driven intra-day solar forecasting

Accurate intra-day forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is critical for the efficient operation of solar energy systems. While satellite-based data have traditionally been used as the most relevant …

Interpretable transformer based intra-day solar forecasting with spatiotemporal satellite and numerical weather prediction inputs

With the increasing capacity addition of solar energy systems, solar forecasting is vital and cost-effective to mitigate solar variability and to support their operation. The temporal fusion transformer (TFT) has shown great potential in both solar …